The Apple Impact (2023)

 On January 9th, 2007 Apple introduced the iPhone. On January 14th, 2007 I wrote about what I called "the Apple Impact."

Other than being wrong that it would be called the iPhone - I remain proud of my prognostications based not on what the announced iPhone did, but rather what it meant.

I think there are a few similar observations to be made about the newly announced Vision Pro mixed-reality headset. Its adoption curve might be different, and perhaps slower, but the ramifications are more profound.

Yes expensive, yes it is "a MAC strapped to my face", and some like Scott Galloway believe it will be the "Ishtar of computing products" (god I love that phrase!).

All that said, I think Apple has done a superb anchor and shift product strategy where we go from a defined concept to something new. First, what is it NOT? It is NOT a virtual reality headset, we have all seen those, and we don't like them, and these are not that.

It simply looks like ski goggles, something we have all seen, and we have seen "normal people" wearing them to do normal things. Sure wearing them in my living room is a little weird - but it is definitely not a lot weird. 

Tackling the fact that no one wants to look silly is critical for the Vision Pro.  Setting aside a number of Google Glasses issues, once the concept of "glasshole" came to the fore, those were doomed. Vision Pro will start indoors and then move outdoors in a gradual way. Based on the launch demonstrations - I think they will clear the acceptance hurdle. 

Absent a concerted regulatory effort Vision Pro and AR (augmented reality) in general is going to find itself in a disparate set of high value markets while letting innovation, price discovery, human curiosity, obdurance, and perversion find other paths to market.

Driving: People will want to drive with these

• No power problems
• 4.9 trillion miles in cars in 2020 with an average of 1.5 passengers per car (I am betting that half person will not mind you wearing a headset)
• Fundamentally we are just moving the windshield closer and wrapping it around your face

Recreation: Cycling, Skiing and more.

• Terrain maps
• Performance information
• Integration to proximity detectors on your vehicle or person
• Geolocation for family and friends (imagine on the ski slope!)

Surgeons: Augmentation of medical procedures will be omnipresent

• Faceshields/masks are common already so little inhibition 
• Recording of medical procedures from practitioner view
• In-procedure overlay of X-ray, MRI, PET, CAT, etc.

Law enforcement: Augmentation and substitution of elements of the job today

• Facial recognition
• Replacement for body cams
• Short range mapping to know location of other first responders

Professional sports: 

• Can the ruggedized version take an NFL-sized hit? (Early mobile phones shattered on gentle impact - now they bounce.)
• Could enable "rogue" leagues that adopt the technology to challenge the leagues that don't adopt
• Could enable new "sports" to emerge

Streamers:

• Welcome to The Truman Show

There are definitely companies and products today that will be displaced just like Blackberry and Garmin, and flashlights and guitar tuners were by the Apple iPhone impact.  I hope a number of them are already going through their "oh hell" process, but the gradient will be shallow, and in some ways easy to ignore until too late.

For example, take the "home entertainment system" as a proxy. Once upon a time this meant a turntable/cd-player, equalizer, and speakers. It was one of the first expenses incurred upon getting a full time job. Friends came over and listened to music together. Now it is likely that a group of friends are sitting around with earbuds listening to their own choice of music on Spotify while each ordering separate Door Dash.

Given that example, what will happen to the large screen television experience? Today there is still quite a bit of shared visual entertainment experience - but the Vision Pro mixed-reality headset, its siblings, and competitors will diminish that market segment significantly. Sure, not next year, remember it is only "2007", wait until you see what happens in 16 years. 

AR is going to lead to emergence of a much broader distributed entertainment and social experience likely at a cost to the physically shared experience. We are already able to feel "close to people who are far" with the technologies of today, but this is an accelerator. With our time and attention "enclosed", it creates the opportunity to tune out and become "far from people who are close".

All that said, the thing that impresses me the most out of the launch event, the early demonstrations, and the overall message ethos, is that it gives Apple A LOT OF WIGGLE ROOM. The initial positioning leaves wide open brand permission to move into any and all of the areas mentioned above and more. 

It was a Rorschach launch - letting us see what we want it to be, more so than the "wow-bang look at this" Steve Jobs 2007 iPhone launch. In letting us see ourselves in the reflection of the screen, we have been invited to the mixed-reality world, more so than sold a product.

There are two wildcards as spatial computing emerges that I would like to note.

One, I wonder what is the voice we will be hearing with our spatial audio. 

Vision Pro emerges at the same time as the artificial intelligence breakout. What will these gods of unknown intention be whispering in our ears? I can't quite yet imagine these two emergent technologies combined and how it could bring about completely new social environments - with all the good and all the terrible amplified.

Two, like the adoption of AI, I think the biggest risks to AR are regulatory. 

Absent a concerted regulatory effort, it is going to infiltrate almost every product space, profession, and practice. Like with AI which is already in the bedazzled gaze of government, what regulatory impulses will be activated by Vision Pro and AR? Will there be a rapid regulatory response of "no you can't do that"? 

As per the iPhone at inception, I actually don't care what Vision Pro 2024 does, I care what it means.

It means "Everything changes."